DEAD RECKONING: A MANIFESTO
Classic strategy games are museum pieces. They simulate a stable world: fixed identities, legible value, and wars you can win by managing known variables. Chess and Stratego model a century where rank stayed put, institutions endured, and your opponent's power was visible.
Dead Reckoning is built for the sea we actually sail.
I. THE HULL IS NOT THE SHIP
The Old World (Chess / Stratego): A piece is born as itself and dies as itself. Pawns climb a ladder. Marshals stay Marshals. Your capabilities are welded to your body.
The Reality (Dead Reckoning): Identity is transferable. Ships are shells. The stack is the ship. The "you" that matters is whatever is hidden below deck, and you can reassign it at will. Transfer turns identity into a portable asset: the same hull can be a pauper one turn and a fortune the next.¹
The Verdict: In Dead Reckoning, you are not a piece. You are whatever the market thinks you're carrying.
II. POWER IS LIQUIDITY
The Old World (Chess / Stratego): Assets are personal and frozen. A rook cannot lend strength to a knight. A miner cannot donate its specialty to a general. Strength is welded to the unit.
The Reality (Dead Reckoning): Transfer is capital flow with concealment built in. You can strip a failing ship and recapitalize another. You can move The Score like a bearer bond. You can diversify across hulls or concentrate into one moonshot, then relocate before anyone can price you correctly.²
The Verdict: Modern power is not force. It is the ability to move value without being seen.
III. FAIRNESS IS A CHILD'S REQUIREMENT
The Old World (Chess / Stratego): Symmetry, clean information, clean fights. Even Stratego's fog still assumes stable ranks and stable rules. The "smartest" player wins by optimizing within a known system.
The Reality (Dead Reckoning): This game pays the pivot, not the administrator. You see the ships. You don't see the cargo. Combat reveals only what matters for violence, not what matters for value. The manifest says grain; the hold says gold.³
The Verdict: Dead Reckoning does not reward correct play. It rewards correct adaptation.
IV. THE BOARD IS A STORY YOU TELL
The Old World (Chess): Perfect information. The board can be trusted. Threats are legible.
The Reality (Dead Reckoning): You are making decisions inside a fog you cannot clear. Every attack is an inference problem with asymmetric costs. Inspection formalizes it: act on suspicion and you might defuse a bomb, or you might trade your inspector for nothing. Combat formalizes it too: surrender is a signal, defend is a signal, and both can be engineered.⁴
The Verdict: In Dead Reckoning, the board is not the board. The board is the narrative you can induce in the other player.
V. DETERRENCE IS A WEAPON EVEN WHEN IT NEVER FIRES
The Old World (Stratego): Traps are static. Mines sit and wait. They are local facts.
The Reality (Dead Reckoning): Nitro is portable uncertainty. It kills only when captured, which means it weaponizes the opponent's confidence. A ship suspected of carrying an 8 projects a force field of fear. The best bomb is the one you never detonate.⁵
The Verdict: The threat is the asset.
THE POINT
Chess trains generals: control the field, win the war.
Dead Reckoning trains allocators: move value, price risk, survive the audit.
You can know exactly where the enemy is and still be blind. You can be "right" and still get liquidated.
In 2025, you are not a rook.
You are a portfolio with enemies.
FOUNDATIONS
¹ Liquid Modernity (Bauman, 2000). Identity becomes mutable; categories dissolve under pressure. Transfer makes "who you are" a movable object, not a stable trait.
² Modern Portfolio Theory (Markowitz, 1952). Risk is managed by allocation. Dead Reckoning forces the question: concentrate The Score for upside, or distribute value for survivability.
³ The Market for Lemons (Akerlof, 1970). Hidden quality corrodes rational pricing. When cargo is opaque, players must assume worst-case or become exploitable.
Signal Detection Theory (Green & Swets, 1966). Every decision under uncertainty is a tradeoff between false alarms and missed threats. Inspection makes that trade explicit.
Deterrence Theory (Schelling, 1960). Weapons work by shaping expectations, not just outcomes. Nitro's power is the opponent's belief that it might be there.
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